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Kodak Film Sales

Dave B , Oct 04, 2010; 06:45 p.m.

I've been watching the photographic film industry for a couple of years. It's an incredible example of what the economists call "disruptive technology" with regards to what's happening to film because of digital.

The graphs show what has been happening with Kodak's film sales for the last few years. The first graph is the Film, Photofinishing and Entertainment Group which Kodak created in 2007 for reporting reasons. A couple of years before that, they started to break out films sales - hence why there isn't expenses related to the 2004 & 2005 years - those numbers weren't available. Those numbers include the movie film business.

Kodak is the film market leader for most of the World so their performance is a pretty good bellwether for the entire industry. What's happening to them is pretty much happening to everyone.

Assuming that their direct and indirect cost structure stays the same, FPEG will go into the red sometime between 2015 and 2017. Of course, Kodak could offshore everything, sell off the film stuff and licenses the "Kodak" name, or just shut the thing down. I can't read their minds and I don't know how much more expenses they can cut, but it doesn't look good.

I've also been looking at FUJIFILM and they aren't doing much better and all through out their reports they mention "divestitures". They're vague about what those divestitures are, but I'm assuming it's film assets.

Responses


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Starvy Goodfellows , Oct 04, 2010; 07:12 p.m.

I actually wonder if film users would pay more if film had cost more. Would Kodak end up being a Poloroid?

Larry Dressler , Oct 04, 2010; 07:13 p.m.

Oh Prophet of doom I see the gloom and in my heart I have no digital room. :)

Kelly Flanigan , Oct 04, 2010; 07:16 p.m.

Kodak Film Sales (in green)
(1) It looks like the glide path of the space shuttle landing in Florida.
(2) It looks like the my dropping savings each year:)
(3) It looks like the drop in dialup usage.
(link)

Larry Dressler , Oct 04, 2010; 07:17 p.m.

Or also the GNP of America.

Kelly Flanigan , Oct 04, 2010; 07:58 p.m.

What is Ailing Kodak (1997):
(link)
PG:
(link)

Larry Dressler , Oct 04, 2010; 08:06 p.m.

Old news... real old.

Dan Ferrel , Oct 04, 2010; 08:18 p.m.

There's also a marked drop in new house sales. So I guess we all like living in apartments don't we. We love it right?

Michael Axel , Oct 04, 2010; 08:25 p.m.

But a blip on the chart, for the newest data, is still about $100m.

Kelly Flanigan , Oct 04, 2010; 08:35 p.m.

If on Jan 2, 1970 you spent 35.68 bucks on Philip Morris stock; you would have 100 shares; today worth 2383 bucks; if one spent every dividend check.

If on Jan 2, 1970 you spent 35.68 bucks on Eastman Kodak stock; you would have 1.0376 shares; today worth 4.11 bucks; if one spent every dividend check.

With the EK stock; one could sell it today and buy a Big Mac; or a roll of film; game is over.

With the MO stock; one could keep it and buy a Big Mac; or a roll of film every 10 days with the dividends; ie 152 bucks per year; ie 6.40 percent of the stocks value

With the EK stock; one could keep it and live off the dividend; which is zero.

Adjusted for splits MO Jan 2 1970 was 0.3568; today is 23.68; dividend 1.52 per share

Adjusted for splits EK Jan 2 1970 was 34.6837; today is 3.96; dividend zero

To have the same 4.11 bucks today in MO stock (as the EK stocks worth today) ;
you would have have to spent 6 cents on MO stock it back in Jan 2 1970; maybe a postage stamp


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