Hey Ellis,
I agree, those are valid points, but perhaps you might have phrases them a little more positively. Especially given how sensitive Pentax fans often get about this stuff.
Not sure what you meat about "the end of Leaf digital backs" or "Mamiya/Leaf". It's hard to define the "players".
Technically, I don't consider Hasselblad to actually be "in business". The old Blad folk in Europe haven't designed a camera in years, and have near zero manufacturing capabilities. But that doesn't matter, because Shriro is a going concern. What Shriro got out of buying Blad was the name, a distribution channel, and the business arrangement between Blad and Fuji and Blad and Imacon. That, of course, lead right into Shriro buying Imacon, and I hear they're negotiating to take the whole medium format design and production business off Fuji's hands. Anyway, Shriro is definitely in the game with design, production, and marketing machines. All the lens, body, back, and marketing profits are under two roofs, Shriro and Fuji, and it may be one roof soon.
The P1/Mamiya deal definitely means the end of the Mamiya ZD, but then again, Mamiya as we know it pretty much died with the Cosmos takeover. Best as I can find out, Cosmos kept under 15% of the Mamiya camera staff, which pretty much puts them in the same position as Blad: they can market someone else's product, and sell whatever Mamiya gear they have in their warehouses, but can no longer design or manufacturer anything of significance. Problem is, Cosmos isn't Shriro, and although you can't swing a stick without whacking an Imacon wannabe, there isn't a spare Fuji-like corporation to actually design and produce cameras and lenses for Cosmamiya, the way Fuji does for Hasselacon. So, P1 is in the game today, but I don't see how they will stay in it. Right now, they've got the profits under two roofs, but I can't see it staying that way. Possible "white knights" include Tamron (who could very easily revive Bronica design and production, with a Mamiya mount) and Cosina (doing something with their Zeiss ties, possibly licensing the Contax name, and maybe supplanting their own IP with stuff licensed from Kyocera).
This leaves the "High 6": Jenoptik, Franke and Heidecke, Schneider, Kodak, Leaf, and Rollei (roughly in order of importance). Jenoptik actually commissioned the Hy6, and designs and builds digital backs for it, both under their name and their Sinar label. Kodak is the sensor manufacturer for everyone but the vestigial Leaf. Schneider, obviously, is the biggest lens manufacture to the rest of the High 6. Franke and Heidecke designed it and builds the body. Leaf will also market Hy6 and make digital backs for it. Although owned by Kodak, Leif isn't just a "brand" like Hasselblad, they're expected to act like a "profit center". And someone calling themselves "Rollei" already markets F&H film cameras and will market a back with the Rollei label.
The High 6 face monumental problems. First and foremost, the sensor manufacturers Atmel and Kodak are smart enough to have observed the over 10:1 sales advantage of 645 to 6x6 in the last decade or two of film sales, and they're quite familiar with the way digital sensor cost increases exponentially with size. Picture a 48mm square sensor back selling for twice what a 36x48mm back sells for. Is not having to turn the camera really worth an extra $25,000 to people?
So, with near zero chance of seeing a 48mm (or preferably a bit larger) square sensor for it, so you're talking rotating backs and kludgy viewfinders, or trying to turn the largest MF camera on the market for verticals.
I consider the Hy6 to be a technological embarrassment, and its integration with the digital backs (despite the working relationships between F&H, Sinar, and Rollei) looks like where Blad was 8 years ago. As a 6x6, it's noisier, bigger, and slower than a 645. Maybe, if there would have been a big square sensor, it would have been worth it.
My prediction, in 3 years, Shriro will be the last man standing. I think they're the only medium format back, body, or lens maker with a business model that consists of more than just clutching at straws or trying hard to look like Shriro.
wizfaq
