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$100B for Facebook?

Michael Chang , Feb 01, 2012; 09:55 a.m.

All the buzz about Facebook going public @ $100B seems a bit overvalued to me for a company that employs all of 3,000 people and revenue of $4B. It is anticipated that every facebook employee is poised to become a millionaire today.

In comparison;
IBM, revenue of $107B, employs 427,000.
Apple, revenue $108B, employs ~60,000.
UPS, revenue $50B, employs 400,000.

Yahoo, Netscape, AOL were some of the names that made a big splash at one time. I wonder where Facebook will be in a decade.

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Steve Smith , Feb 01, 2012; 09:59 a.m.

It is anticipated that every facebook employee is poised to become a millionaire today


If I was a FaceBook employee and became a millionaire today, I don't think I would bother being a FaceBook employee tomorrow.

Mark Pierlot , Feb 01, 2012; 10:34 a.m.

What's Facebook?

David Cavan , Feb 01, 2012; 10:41 a.m.

It feels like I've seen this movie before...any number of companies in 2000 were going to be worth extraordinary amounts on their IPO, and all the employees could retire at 35. Let's ask most of them how that retirement is going today.

A 25 to 1 ratio of IPO value to revenue is kind of "out there". Google is currently at a market cap of $188B; with annual revenues under $40B, so you'd wonder what intrinsic value will sustain Facebooks numbers over the next few years. I am fully aware that it is a powerful brand, with a lot of potential, but monetizing it at that level is a real gamble, I think.

Jeff Spirer , Feb 01, 2012; 10:56 a.m.

every facebook employee is poised to become a millionaire today.

For many of them, only on paper. Some (maybe most) are subject to stock lockup provisions, and many haven't vested yet.

Ken Papai , Feb 01, 2012; 05:42 p.m.

>>> If I was a FaceBook employee and became a millionaire today, I don't think I would bother being a FaceBook employee tomorrow.

If you lived in SF Bay area having a virtual "million $$$" in the bank ain't all that much. OK, maybe $5M might suffice, even if it's virtual money. ;-) (and what Jeff said about stock provisions, rules for employees)

Michael Chang , Feb 01, 2012; 07:50 p.m.

There really is a virtual reality in our every day lives in the modern world which did not exist before. Or maybe I'm wrong - it is every teenager's reality to have (or aspire to have) 500+ friends on Facebook and never knew it to be different. Too bad one day they will all have to live in (and face) the real world.

Here's a reality check:
[American Airlines to cut 13,000 staff to stay afloat]

John H. , Feb 01, 2012; 08:02 p.m.

If I was a FaceBook employee and became a millionaire today, I don't think I would bother being a FaceBook employee tomorrow.

I quite enjoy your subtle sardonic wit Steve. Even if it isn't intentional.

Tim Holte , Feb 01, 2012; 08:26 p.m.

Facebook should go public as soon as possible and cash in because next year at this time they won't be worth one fourth as much. Kids are leaving in droves because FB is being taken over by old people which is not a good thing for future growth and profitability.

Michael Chang , Feb 01, 2012; 08:53 p.m.

Tim, apparently the vast majority of daily logins are from outside of the US, and Facebook still has the potential to one day penetrate China where it is currently shut out of.

I'm not sure that demographics matter as much as the sheer numbers of users since its profit model is entirely advertising driven.


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